The Lobbyist Connection
Holiday Week Special Edition
Monday, December 29, 2025 • Washington, D.C. + Statehouses • Author: Jay C. Taylor
🎄 Holiday Week note: Congress is largely out, but the funding clock is still running. This issue goes deep on the post-shutdown landscape and the January 30, 2026 funding cliff.
Top Lines
- Shutdown is “over for now,” but the next deadline is set: the current stopgap funds most agencies through January 30, 2026. Track the live status here: CRS Appropriations Status Table (FY2026).
- The law that ended the 43-day shutdown combined a continuing resolution (through Jan 30) with a three-bill “minibus” (full-year funding for Agriculture; Military Construction–VA; and the Legislative Branch): H.R. 5371 (summary) and bill text.
- Next move on appropriations: Senate leaders and appropriators have been pushing a five-bill minibus, but the end-of-year push sputtered and the next procedural action is expected in January: CBS on the “minibus” and AAMC recap (minibus delayed).
- Federal workforce + back pay: OPM issued updated guidance following enactment of the shutdown-ending law: OPM CHCO memo (PDF).
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Shutdown Deep Dive
The immediate crisis passed in November—but the structure of the deal and the Jan 30 deadline create a new leverage cycle.
Here’s what matters most for lobbying, government affairs, and regulated industries heading into 2026.
1) Where funding stands right now
- Most agencies are operating under a continuing resolution until January 30, 2026 (generally at prior-year levels). Primary text: H.R. 5371 text.
- Three FY2026 bills were locked in for the rest of the fiscal year (Agriculture; MilCon–VA; Legislative Branch). See CRS’ table for quick “what’s done vs. not done” tracking: Appropriations Status Table.
- Budget scorekeeper lens: CBO’s summary of the Senate amendment that extended funding through Jan 30 is here: CBO cost estimate (H.R. 5371 / Senate Amendment).
2) Why the Jan 30 “cliff” is different this time
- It’s a true forcing event: absent action, most discretionary-funded agencies face another lapse in appropriations on Friday, January 30, 2026.
- Legislative path is narrower: leadership has signaled preference for “regular order” + minibuses (not a late mega-omnibus), keeping issue-by-issue fights alive across the calendar. House Appropriations press materials: House Appropriations (Nov. update).
- Pressure points stack up in January: appropriations + expiring program authorities + unresolved policy riders (and, in some corners, health-care subsidy negotiations rolling into the new year).
3) The “minibus” strategy (what’s in play)
- Senate negotiators have been targeting a five-bill minibus (Defense; Labor-HHS-Education; Transportation-HUD; Commerce-Justice-Science; Interior-Environment), but end-of-year procedural momentum stalled and action is now expected in January: CBS overview • AAMC details.
- Housing/THUD advocates are tracking minibus contours closely: NLIHC on THUD + minibus talks.
4) Operational reality: agencies are planning like it can happen again
- Even with funding restored, agencies are using contingency plans as living documents. Example: OPM contingency plan.
- White House/EOP posture and staffing assumptions were published in the fall: EOP Shutdown Plan (PDF).
- State impacts and federal program spillovers remain a core watch area: NCSL: what shutdowns mean for states/programs.
What to watch (the “January checklist”)
- Floor time: does leadership tee up a five-bill minibus first, or pivot back to another short CR?
- Riders: which policy issues become “must-have” add-ons (and which get ruled out)?
- Back pay + workforce protections: OPM guidance is updated, but political fights can re-emerge fast.
- Program disruptions: states, contractors, and regulated industries will push for certainty well before Jan 30.
Legislation to Watch
- FY2026 appropriations vehicles: follow what’s passed, what’s pending, and where conference action is occurring: CRS status table.
- Continuing Appropriations / CR mechanics: baseline authority and deadlines are embedded in the enacted funding law: H.R. 5371.
- “Minibus” negotiations (5-bill package): the December attempt didn’t clear, setting up a January sprint: CBS tracking.
- Fiscal-policy calendar: CRFB maintains a useful, plain-English timeline of deadlines and recent action: CRFB: fiscal deadlines.
Regulatory Moves
- Workforce policy after the shutdown: OPM’s guidance memo (pay/leave/benefits and related HR programs): OPM CHCO memo (PDF).
- Agency continuity planning: updated and standing lapse plans continue to matter for contractors and grantees: OPM contingency plan • DOJ FY2026 contingency plan (PDF).
Legal Industry & Judiciary
- Supreme Court: the Court denied an emergency request related to a National Guard deployment to the Chicago area (litigation ongoing): AP summary • WaPo coverage.
- Orders & emergency docket watch: official order lists are posted here: SCOTUS Orders (Term Year 2025) and a convenient month view: Cornell order lists.
Supreme Court Watch
Holiday week often means fewer merits fireworks—but the emergency docket and order lists can still move markets and policy.
- Weekly habit: check official order lists on Court sitting Mondays: Official Orders page.
- Quick browse of recent opinions: Justia: 2025 opinion list.
Statehouse Watch
- Federal shutdown ripple effects on states: impacts to discretionary programs, state budgeting, and admin coordination: NCSL explainer.
- Advice for state-federal shops: align agency outreach (lapse plans, “excepted” services, grant processing) with the Jan 30 clock—especially where federal staff time gates approvals.
Action Items
- Build a Jan 30 funding playbook: identify which programs you track that fall under the CR (most agencies) vs. full-year bills (Ag; MilCon–VA; Leg Branch). Start here: CRS status table.
- Map your “critical path” dependencies: approvals, payments, inspections, rulemakings—any process that needs federal staffing continuity.
- Pre-wire Hill meetings for early January: once leadership returns, the minibus/CR decision will move fast. Use primary text so you’re not reacting to summaries: H.R. 5371 text.
Calendar & Deadlines
- Dec 31, 2025: end-of-year policy deadlines continue to press Congress into January (example: ACA subsidy discussions rolling over). (Context: WSJ coverage.)
- Jan 2026 (early): Senate expected to revisit procedural steps on the five-bill “minibus.” (AAMC)
- Fri, Jan 30, 2026: current continuing funding expires for most agencies. Primary law: H.R. 5371
Careers & Openings (Federal & States)
A quick set of live postings worth a look (mix of federal, Hill, and private-sector government affairs).
- Chief, Legislative Affairs Division (USAJOBS) — View posting
- Legislative Assistant (GS-5) (USAJOBS) — View posting
- Analyst in Social Policy (Congressional Research Service) — View posting
- Senate Employment Bulletin: Legislative Assistant (multiple listings) — Open bulletin
- Director of Federal & Diplomatic Relations (The Coca-Cola Company) — View posting
- Associate Director, Government Relations (Public Affairs Council job board) — View posting
- Government Relations Specialist (SUNY / Albany, NY) — View posting
- Capitol Hill Jobs aggregator (committee + member office postings) — Browse
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© 2025 The Lobbyist Connection • Holiday Week Special Edition